- 26
- July
The short answer is that the world is not ageing at the same speed. While Thailand, China, Japan and South Korea lose workers, India, the Philippines, Indonesia and Sub-Saharan Africa will add hundreds of millions of working-age people over the next two decades — and that divergence reshapes end markets, production bases and competitors for Thai businesses.
This is part 2 of a three-part series, following What Is Population Collapse? Why Thai Businesses Can No Longer Find Workers, which covered the domestic picture. Here we zoom out to the global map across the next 5, 10, 15 and 20 years, then translate it back into decisions a business plan actually has to make.
In one line: India will add another 128 million working-age people by 2040 and the Philippines grows 36.6% between 2020 and 2050, while China loses roughly 250 million people and Japan falls to 100 million by 2050 — Thai businesses have to decide which side of that line they operate on.
The new rule: the world is not ageing together
The United Nations' World Population Prospects 2024 reports that in roughly 100 countries the working-age population (ages 20-64) will keep growing through 2054, the window economists call the demographic dividend. A further 126 countries and areas are projected to keep growing in population through or beyond 2054 — among them India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States.
The UN also projects that the global working-age population will decline for the first time somewhere between 2060 and 2100, driven mainly by East Asia, Europe, Latin America and South/Southeast Asia. In other words, the next twenty years are the last stretch in which the world still gains workers — and those gains will be concentrated in a handful of regions.
The winning side — where working-age people are still being added
| Country / region | What happens | When to watch |
|---|---|---|
| India | Working-age population up 63 million by 2030 and 128 million by 2040; the working-age share peaks at roughly 65% in 2041 | The next 5-15 years are the peak |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | Working-age population reaches 1 billion in the late 2030s; by the late 2040s the DRC, Ethiopia and Nigeria will each add more to global workforce growth than India | 15-20 years out and beyond |
| Philippines | Working-age population grows 36.6% between 2020 and 2050 — the strongest among the larger ASEAN economies | Across the whole 20 years |
| Indonesia | Working-age growth of 15.5% over the same period; Goldman Sachs projects it as the world's fourth-largest economy by 2050 | 5-20 years |
| United States | One of the few developed economies whose working-age population still grows past 2054, largely through migration | Long term |
The number worth remembering here is that India currently accounts for 23% of the growth in the global working-age population (Nigeria is at 7%), yet India's share falls to just 2% by mid-century. Even today's biggest demographic winner is running a clock.
The losing side — and where Thailand sits on it
| Country | Trajectory to 2050 | Fertility rate |
|---|---|---|
| China | Loses roughly 250 million people; the working-age share falls below 60%, down from a peak of around 75% in 2010 | 1.09 |
| Japan | 122 million falling to 100 million; the 20-64 population drops to about 60% of its year-2000 level | 1.37 |
| South Korea | 51.6 million falling to 46 million; GDP growth of 1.3% in 2023 is projected to approach 0% by 2050 | 0.72 |
| Thailand | Working-age population (15-59) falls from 43.26 million (65%) in 2020 to 36.5 million (56%) by 2040, per NESDC projections | 0.86 |
The crucial difference is that China, Japan and South Korea entered this phase with stronger industrial bases and higher income per capita. Thailand is entering the same phase as a middle-income economy — a point covered in detail in part 1 of this series.
ASEAN is splitting in two — and Thailand is on the wrong side
What many organisations have not yet updated in their thinking is that, demographically, "ASEAN" is no longer a single bloc. Working-age growth between 2020 and 2050 divides the region cleanly.
| Country | Working-age population growth, 2020-2050 |
|---|---|
| Timor-Leste | +74.1% |
| Laos | +40.2% |
| Philippines | +36.6% |
| Cambodia | +34.8% |
| Malaysia | +19.8% |
| Indonesia | +15.5% |
| Myanmar | +13.4% |
The neighbouring countries Thailand has relied on as a labour source are becoming both growing consumer markets and competitors for their own workers. As their domestic economies improve, the incentive to cross the border for work weakens. That belongs in the corporate risk register alongside the topics in systematic risk management.
An important caveat: "more people" does not automatically mean "richer." A demographic dividend converts into real growth only where education, infrastructure and job creation keep pace. Analysts warn that even India risks growing old before growing rich if productivity lags. This map must always be read alongside each country's policy and productivity record.
The 5 / 10 / 15 / 20-year timeline
Lining up the figures from every source by time horizon produces the following picture.
| Horizon | Globally | Thailand |
|---|---|---|
| 5 years 2031 | India passes the milestone of 63 million added workers (2030); Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia remain inside their dividend window | Annual births trending below 400,000; approaching super-aged status |
| 10 years 2036 | Sub-Saharan Africa's working-age population reaches 1 billion; China, Japan and South Korea continue contracting | Population aged 60+ passes 28% (fully super-aged around 2034); IPSR projects the population could fall to 61.6 million by 2034 if fertility drops toward 0.7 |
| 15 years 2041 | India hits the peak of its demographic dividend (working-age share ~65%) and begins its own countdown | Approaching the NESDC projection of 36.5 million working-age people and 31.28% aged 60+ by 2040 |
| 20 years 2046 | The DRC, Ethiopia and Nigeria each contribute more to global workforce growth than India; China nears its 250-million loss (2050) | The workers entering the market in this period are the 416,574 children born in 2025 — a figure already fixed |
Four things that change for Thai businesses
1. End markets move. Businesses dependent on domestic purchasing power hit a ceiling first, because the number of consumers is genuinely falling. The markets still expanding within Thailand's reach are CLMV, Indonesia, the Philippines and India.
2. Production bases follow the workers. As Thai wages rise on scarcity while neighbours still have labour to spare, new factory decisions tilt toward countries with people. Thai contract manufacturers need an answer to what they compete on if not labour cost.
3. Competing for migrant labour gets harder. Thailand has long relied on workers from neighbouring countries, but as those economies grow — and as other countries in the region face the same shortage — competition for that pool intensifies.
4. New competitors come from countries with people. Firms from India, Vietnam or Indonesia with younger workforces and lower costs will increasingly compete in the same markets, which means Thailand has to move up to competing on quality, speed and systems rather than price.
The risk of misreading the map: relocating production or expanding into growing markets while back-office systems remain fragmented usually ends with head office not knowing the true cost of an overseas operation until year-end close — far too late to act on.
What this has to do with back-office systems
If the conclusion of this map is "domestic growth is hard, look outward," the immediate follow-up question is whether the organisation is ready to run several business units at once — multiple companies, multiple branches, multiple currencies — while management still sees one consolidated picture.
Saeree ERP supports multi-company and multi-currency operation, which is the foundation for this kind of work. To be straightforward, though: country-specific tax rules and statutory requirements are assessed case by case, and no single software package should claim instant coverage of every jurisdiction. Expansion planning should therefore start with getting the domestic system stable first, along the lines described in preparing for an ERP implementation, ERP for SMEs and our overview of what an ERP system actually is.
Conclusion
Over the next twenty years the world splits into two camps — those still gaining working-age people, and those that must produce the same output with fewer of them. Thailand is in the second camp. That is not a defeat, but it does mean the strategies that used to work have to change.
| If your business... | What to revisit in the next five years |
|---|---|
| Depends mainly on domestic consumers | Customer numbers will not grow on their own — raise value per customer, or find markets where the population is still growing |
| Runs labour-intensive production | Prepare an answer for what you compete on once wages rise and hiring fails |
| Relies on migrant labour | Assumptions about labour supply from neighbouring countries should be reviewed annually, not set and forgotten |
| Is considering overseas expansion | Stabilise domestic data systems first, then expand — not expand and retrofit the data afterwards |
Part 3, the final instalment, sets out what Thailand as a country and individual organisations should prioritise across each 5, 10, 15 and 20-year horizon — both the policy proposals from research institutes and the steps business owners can take without waiting for anyone.
"Countries gaining people compete on numbers. Countries losing people have to compete on systems — Thailand did not choose its side, but it can choose how early it prepares."
- The Saeree ERP team
References
- UN DESA — World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results
- Population Reference Bureau — India's Population Surpasses China's; the Overlooked Rise of Sub-Saharan Africa
- Katadata — Southeast Asia Working-Age Population Growth Projections 2020-2050
- Goldman Sachs — The global economy in 2075: growth slows as Asia rises
- GIS Reports — An Asian demographic decline deepens in three nations
- ORF — India Could Age Before It Becomes Rich: From Demographic Dividend to Productivity Dividend
- Foundation of Thai Gerontology Research and Development Institute — NESDC projects 31% elderly within 20 years
- Thailand's Population Situation 2026 — IPSR, Mahidol University
Interested in an ERP system for your organisation?
Planning market expansion or restructuring production? Talk to the Saeree ERP team about getting your data systems ready before you expand — free of charge.
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