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- July
The short answer is that when the number of workers falls, the only thing keeping output from falling with it is higher output per person — at both national and company level. Every serious policy proposal therefore returns to three levers: more people (migration and longer working lives), better people (education and reskilling), and higher productivity (technology and systems).
This is the final part of a three-part series, following What Is Population Collapse? Why Thai Businesses Can No Longer Find Workers and Demographic Winners and Losers: The World Population Map for the Next 20 Years. The first half summarises policy proposals from research institutes; the second half is what business owners can act on without waiting for anyone.
In one line: NESDC projects Thailand's working-age population falling from 43.26 million in 2020 to 36.5 million by 2040 while the over-60 share rises to 31.28% — any organisation still planning on the assumption that it can hire more people is planning on an expired assumption.
The size of the problem: numbers that belong in the plan
Population projections from Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) give the clearest picture of where the country is heading.
| Indicator | 2020 | 2040 (projected) |
|---|---|---|
| Working-age population (15-59) | 43.26 million (65%) | 36.5 million (56%) — a loss of 6.7 million |
| Children (0-14) | 11.2 million (16.9%) | 8.4 million (12.8%) |
| Older people (60+) | 12 million (18%) | 20.42 million (31.28%) |
| Old-age dependency ratio (per 100 working-age) | 27.7 | 56.2 |
| Working-age people per older person | 3.6 | 1.8 |
The last row governs everything else. Going from 3.6 working-age people per older person to 1.8 means the burden carried by each working person roughly doubles in under two decades — in taxes, in family care, and in the volume of work they are responsible for at the office.
First half: what the country is being asked to do
The Institute for Population and Social Research (IPSR) at Mahidol University set out five policy directions in its 2026 report on Thailand's population situation. What stands out is that none of them is simply "pay people to have children."
| Proposal | Substance |
|---|---|
| Invest in human quality | From early childhood onward, plus reskilling the existing workforce — with fewer people, each one has to be more productive |
| Replacement migration | Open up to migrant workers, particularly high-skill ones — 54% of survey respondents were supportive |
| Redefine "older person" as 65 | So that people can keep working — 53% agreed |
| A digital safety net | For the 1.8 million older people living alone, a figure that has grown nearly fourfold in 30 years |
| Flexible family support systems | Rather than cash alone — the real obstacles are economic insecurity, cost of living, debt, lack of childcare, and inflexible working hours |
The key finding: IPSR reports that most younger Thais (Gen Y and Gen Z) still want children but are caught in economic and social constraints. The task is therefore not changing attitudes but lowering the cost and risk of having a family — something employers can contribute to directly through flexible hours and benefits that are usable in practice.
TDRI reaches a compatible conclusion from the economic side, noting that beyond demographics the central problem is total factor productivity falling from 2.0% a year in 2015-2019 to 1.34% after COVID. Its labour recommendations are blunt: extend effective working lives (Thais currently retire at around 55), reduce avoidable losses of labour, and raise the quality of education.
Second half: the playbook an organisation can run without waiting for policy
Every policy proposal above takes years to bear fruit. An individual company does not have to wait. What follows is ordered against the same timeline as the crisis itself.
| Horizon | What to do | Why now |
|---|---|---|
| 5 years to 2031 | Move knowledge out of individual heads · eliminate duplicate data entry · actually measure output per person · revisit benefits so younger staff can stay | The people who know how everything works today will mostly retire within the next 5-15 years |
| 10 years to 2036 | Design roles older workers can continue in · build succession paths for mid-level positions · automate the work you cannot hire for | Thailand becomes fully super-aged in this window, and mid-skill roles are the deepest shortage |
| 15 years to 2041 | Re-examine whether the business model still depends on headcount · assess markets where the population is still growing | Thailand's working-age population approaches 36.5 million while the domestic market keeps shrinking |
| 20 years to 2046 | The organisation should be at a point where revenue no longer scales linearly with employee count | The workers entering the market then are the 416,574 children born in 2025 — a number already fixed |
The three highest-return moves in the first five years
1. Get knowledge out of people's heads. Most organisations have a handful of people who "know how it is done" with nothing written down. As the average age of the team rises each year, that risk turns into real damage. The fix is not a thick manual nobody reads, but processes that actually run inside a system — the central argument of When Key Employees Leave, the System Collapses.
2. Eliminate work that creates no value. Re-keying the same data across departments, rebuilding reports by hand every month, chasing approvals — this consumes the time of a workforce that keeps getting smaller. In organisations still run on scattered files, the problem is usually larger than estimated, as described in the risks of running a business on Excel.
3. Measure output per person honestly. If an organisation cannot say whether output per employee improved or worsened this year, it cannot know whether it is winning or losing this game. That metric belongs in the management report alongside revenue and profit.
A warning: rushing technology in before processes are settled usually produces a new system layered on top of a broken old one, requiring extra people to maintain both — the opposite of the goal. The correct order is to clarify the process first, then build the system.
Where ERP fits — and where it does not
An ERP system does not add people, does not raise the birth rate, and does not replace management judgement. What it does is reduce the number of people required per transaction and keep processes running when staff change — which maps onto two of the three playbook items above.
In practice, Saeree ERP keeps data in one place, removes re-keying between procurement, the warehouse and accounting, lets an administrator add users, assign rights, set valid from-to periods or deactivate departing staff directly, and lets managers pull reports without waiting on someone to prepare them. That last problem — reports arriving too late to inform a decision — is covered in the reporting gap.
The AI assistant component is still in development and training, so we do not claim it is fully available. Candidly, an organisation whose data is still scattered would not benefit from AI in any case. The sensible order is to stabilise the data foundation first, along the lines of preparing for an ERP implementation and what an ERP system actually is.
Conclusion
The demographic crisis is slow to solve nationally but fast to adapt to at company level. Every policy proposal — skilled migration, longer working lives, investment in human capital — takes years and depends on decisions outside any business's control. The three playbook items — moving knowledge out of individuals, eliminating non-value work, and measuring output per person — can start this quarter.
| Level | What must happen | Time to effect |
|---|---|---|
| National | Education quality · skilled migration · longer working lives · elder care systems · systematic family support | 5-20 years |
| Industry | Build replacement mid-level talent · reskill the existing workforce · automate work that cannot be staffed | 3-10 years |
| Organisation | Move knowledge out of individuals · eliminate duplicated work · measure output per person | Can start immediately |
The series ends on a single conclusion: Thailand will have fewer working people under every projected scenario. The remaining question is not whether it happens, but whether your organisation begins adapting while there is still time — or once there is nobody left to hire.
"National policy takes a decade to show results, but getting knowledge out of people's heads can start this week — and that is the part genuinely within your control."
- The Saeree ERP team
References
- Foundation of Thai Gerontology Research and Development Institute — NESDC projects 31% elderly within 20 years (NESDC population projections)
- Thailand's Population Situation 2026 — Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University (IPSR)
- TDRI — Structural Challenges for the Thai Economy (March 2026)
- TDRI — Turning ageing into opportunities (January 2026)
- Bangkok Biz News — 2025 births lowest in 75 years (citing civil registration statistics, Department of Provincial Administration)
- Policy Watch Thai PBS — 40 million employed Thais: what they do and where they are
Interested in an ERP system for your organisation?
Start with the first three items in the playbook — talk to the Saeree ERP team about where your organisation can begin, free of charge.
Request a Free DemoTel 02-347-7730 | sale@grandlinux.com
