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Since the beginning of 2026, tech industry layoffs worldwide have surged to alarming levels — more than 30,000 positions have been cut within just a few months. Block (Jack Dorsey's company) slashed its workforce by 40%, Amazon laid off 16,000 employees in January 2026, and several other tech giants followed suit. Every one of them cited "AI and Automation" as the primary reason. But the critical question remains — is AI truly the cause, or is it just a convenient excuse?
The Shocking Numbers: Who's Laying Off in 2026?
Here are the major tech companies that announced layoffs since the beginning of 2026, with many directly citing AI as the reason:
| Company | Jobs Cut | CEO Quote / Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Block (Jack Dorsey) | 40% of workforce | "AI can do these jobs now. We don't need the same headcount." |
| Amazon | 16,000 (Jan 2026) | Cited restructuring to invest in AI and automation |
| Salesforce | Several thousand | CEO Marc Benioff: "AI agents mean we don't need to hire more support staff" |
| JP Morgan | White-collar job cuts | CEO Jamie Dimon: "AI will replace a significant number of white-collar jobs" |
| Ford | Office and factory cuts | CEO Jim Farley: "Many jobs will be replaced by AI within 3 years" |
A survey by Resume Builder found that 60% of US hiring managers are planning layoffs in 2026, citing AI/Automation as the reason. It appears that AI is becoming a "legally acceptable excuse" for workforce reductions.
HBR Analysis: AI's "Potential" vs AI's "Performance"
A critical analysis from Harvard Business Review (HBR) highlights a key point that is often overlooked:
"Companies are laying off because of AI's potential, not its performance."
- Harvard Business Review, 2026
This is the heart of the issue: many CEOs are making layoff decisions before AI has proven itself capable of replacing human workers. They are deciding based on "what AI might be able to do in the future," not "what AI can actually do today."
Consider this: if an organization lays off employees with 10 years of experience, then discovers that AI still cannot perform those tasks adequately — who takes responsibility? This is the risk HBR warns about, and it aligns with the problem of organizational knowledge loss that many companies are currently facing.
The "AI-Washing" Phenomenon: When AI Becomes a Ready-Made Excuse
Fortune magazine coined the terms "AI-washing" and "forever layoffs" to describe the phenomenon of companies using AI as an excuse for workforce reductions, when the real reasons may be entirely different:
- Cutting costs to boost quarterly profits — pressure from investors and Wall Street
- Pre-planned restructuring — AI sounds more modern than "cost-cutting"
- Building an "AI-first" image — attracting investors who favor AI-themed companies
- Reducing resistance from remaining employees — "It's not that you're not good, AI just does it now" sounds better than "the company is losing money"
The Numbers That Tell the Truth
According to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, there were 1.2 million total layoffs in 2025, but only 55,000 (4.5%) actually cited AI as the direct reason. The remaining 95.5% were attributed to other causes such as restructuring, cost reduction, or business unit closures.
This 4.5% figure stands in stark contrast to the media narrative, which makes it seem like AI is "eating jobs" everywhere. The reality is that AI is not yet the primary driver of layoffs — but it is being used as a "cover" for business decisions that have other motivations behind them.
The Fed Reserve Weighs In: AI Enhances Productivity, Not Eliminates Jobs
Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve Governor, offered a compelling perspective:
"AI is more likely to enhance productivity than eliminate jobs — just as every new technology has done throughout history."
- Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve Governor
This view is consistent with the history of technology: when ATMs arrived, bank tellers didn't disappear — they shifted from counting cash to becoming financial advisors. When Excel came along, accountants didn't lose their jobs — they gained the ability to do deeper analysis. The real question isn't "Will AI replace people?" but rather "How will organizations adapt so that people can work alongside AI?"
Impact on Thai Organizations: What You Need to Know
While the layoff wave has been concentrated in the US, its effects are already reaching Thailand, particularly in these areas:
- Multinational companies in Thailand — Thai branch offices are affected by their parent companies' headcount reduction policies
- BPO/Outsource businesses — Data entry, customer support, and back-office work previously outsourced to Thailand is starting to be replaced by AI
- Accounting and Finance departments — Reconciliation, reporting, and repetitive compliance tasks are being automated
- HR departments — Resume screening, scheduling, and administrative tasks are being challenged
The key point is that Thai organizations should not "panic" and follow the layoff trend. Instead, they should manage risk systematically, analyzing which tasks AI can actually perform today — not tasks it "might" be able to do in the future.
How to Prepare: Upskilling, ERP Systems, and Process Automation
Instead of laying off workers, smarter organizations are choosing to prepare their people for the AI era through the following approaches:
1. Upskilling Existing Employees
Training employees to use AI as a tool is better than laying them off and hiring new people. Current employees possess domain knowledge that AI lacks — customer understanding, internal processes, and institutional memory accumulated over years. If these people are let go, the organization loses irreplaceable knowledge. As we analyzed in our article on what to do when AI outperforms humans, the key is collaboration, not replacement.
2. Using ERP Systems as Infrastructure
Before thinking about AI, you need a solid data system. A robust HR system helps manage workforce planning, an accounting system enables cost analysis, and an ERP system connects everything together. Having structured data is the foundation that makes AI actually work — not just another buzzword.
3. Process Automation Does Not Equal Job Elimination
A common misconception is: "automate a process = lay off staff." In reality, good automation should:
- Reduce repetitive work — giving people time for higher-value tasks
- Reduce errors — eliminating time spent fixing human mistakes
- Increase throughput — doing more with the same team, not a smaller one
- Elevate roles — shifting from data entry to data analysis
Most importantly, before introducing AI or automation into an organization, careful consideration must be given to its impact on people. As we discussed in our article on the risks of replacing humans with AI, hasty decisions can lead to significant organizational damage.
The Right Approach: AI Augments, Not Replaces
- Use AI for tasks where humans are slow or error-prone (e.g., data entry, document verification)
- Let people handle tasks requiring judgment, relationships, and creativity
- Create a feedback loop — have humans review and continuously improve AI output
- Maintain ERP systems as the foundational infrastructure so that data is readily available for both humans and AI
Conclusion: Don't Fall for "AI-Washing" — Decide with Data, Not Trends
AI-related layoffs are a phenomenon that needs to be seen through clearly:
- Real numbers: Only 4.5% of layoffs directly cited AI
- HBR insight: Companies are laying off based on AI's "potential," not "performance"
- Fed Reserve reminder: AI will enhance productivity, not eliminate jobs
- AI-Washing: Many companies use AI as a "cover" for pre-planned cost reductions
For Thai business leaders, the advice is clear: don't lay off people because of trends — invest in people based on data. Build a robust ERP system, train employees to use AI as a tool, and manage change with a plan. Because ultimately, the strongest organizations are not the ones with the fewest people, but the ones where people work most effectively.
References
- Harvard Business Review — Companies Are Laying Off Workers Because of AI's Potential, Not Its Performance
- Fortune — AI-Washing and Forever Layoffs: How Companies Use AI as an Excuse
- Reuters — Amazon Cuts 16,000 Jobs in January 2026
- CNBC — Block (Jack Dorsey) Lays Off 40% of Workforce
- Federal Reserve — Governor Waller on AI and the Labor Market
- Resume Builder — 60% of Hiring Managers Plan Layoffs in 2026
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas — 2025 Layoff Report: AI Cited in Only 4.5% of Cuts
